Life Cycle of Plastics: From Pump to Parts

April/May 2008

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Plastic and competitive pipe demand

by The Freedonia Group, Inc.
April/May 2008

Pipe demand in the United States is projected to increase 2.4 percent annually to 16.7 billion feet in 2011. Advances will be driven by heightened energy demands, the growing obsolescence of sewer and drainage systems, and needs to upgrade municipal water systems. Constraints to further growth include declining single family housing starts and fiscal austerity measures. Steel pipe will exhibit the fastest growth due to opportunities in energy and potable water markets. Plastic pipe demand will expand at an average pace, stimulated by growing sewer and drain applications, as well as resin and processing improvements. Construction will account for more than half of all pipe use based on diverse drain, sewer, water distribution and other applications. However, energy pipe will expand at the fastest pace due to continued natural gas and oil drilling, and increased pipe­line transmission construction activity.

Steel pipe demand will rise 3.2 percent annually to 2.8 billion feet in 2011, with best growth expected in gas and oil pipe and potable water pipe. Oil and gas pipe demand will be fueled by opportunities in line pipe, used in the transmission of natural gas and petroleum, as well as oil country tubular goods used in drilling activity. Potable water pipe demand for steel will be fostered by steel’s high pressure tolerance and strength, and by the aging of water distribution pipelines.

Plastic pipe demand is expected to expand 2.4 percent yearly to 6.8 billion feet in 2011, creating demand for 11.1 billion pounds of resin and accounting for more than 40 percent of total pipe footage. Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) will account for 65 percent of all plastic pipe demand with growth stimulated by improved joining technologies and resins such as molecularly oriented PVC. High density polyethylene (HDPE) pipe will exhibit the fastest plastic pipe growth based on opportunities in potable water and corrugated pipe. Advances will reflect performance enhancements, including greater use of bimodal polyethylene. Reinforced thermosets and other resins will expand at a slower pace due to mature markets and more specialized uses.

Copper pipe demand will increase at a below average pace due to declining single family housing starts and subsequent diminished opportunities in bedrock service and distribution applications. Aluminum pipe demand will present its best opportunities in light poles and other bridge, street and highway products, with overall growth constrained by cost disadvantages compared to other materials. Storm sewers will remain the leading concrete pipe application, with water distribution exhibiting better growth. Cast iron pipe demand will remain almost flat due to mature applications and competition from plastic pipe.

Construction pipe demand is forecast to rise 2.1 percent per annum to 8.4 billion feet in 2011. Advances will be fostered by a rebound in nonresidential building construction, with further ex­pansion threatened by declines in single-family housing starts. Refrigeration demand will be bolstered by good growth in commercial refrigeration equipment, particularly beverage refrigeration and cryogenic equipment. Energy pipe demand will present the best growth and expand 3.7 percent yearly to 3.0 billion feet in 2011, benefitting from continued drilling activity, as well as the replacement and expansion of energy transmission pipelines.

For further details, contact The Freedonia Group, Inc., 767 Beta Drive, Cleveland, OH 44143 USA; (440) 684-9600, fax (440) 646-0484, e-mail: pr@freedoniagroup.com, www.freedoniagroup.com.